How would a full-scale invasion work?

Exploiting its overwhelming superiority in land, sea and air forces, Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, from the north-east, the Donbas and Crimea. Ground troops in Belarus, backed by airstrikes, would spearhead a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine’s encircled army would be forced, in theory, to surrender.

What are the main targets?

The primary aim would be the rapid capitulation of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv and the “neutralisation” of its elected leaders. Key targets would include the presidential palace, parliament, ministries, media outlets and the Maidan Nezalezhnosti – the symbolic site of Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolutions.

At what cost?

The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. British officials predict “horrendous” suffering.

Does Vladimir Putin have a plan B?

Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major p