The open war in Ukraine is unsettling Western Europe. Before that, the Coronavirus pandemic challenged the certainties of a globalized world. What remains is the realization that a virus is able to affect individual freedom, weaken the economy, and divide society.

More than that, the pandemic has revived an old fear. What if an authoritarian government had a special virus or bacterium developed in secret laboratories and then distributed it over foreign territory? If a pandemic were deliberately planned and brought about?

Two developments are conceivable:

These possibilities are frightening – but are they realistic?

The ideal biological weapon would be a pathogen that is easily transmissible between people and quickly infects each person. Many of those affected would become seriously ill or even die within a few days.

However, despite all modern biotechnologies and an enormously increased knowledge of viruses and bacteria, it is still not possible to build a pathogen with all these desired properties in a laboratory. Nor is it possible to construct a pathogen from already known dangerous germs such as the influenza, corona, Ebola and smallpox viruses or the plague bacterium.

No control over diseases

The problem is: No experts can currently say which gene segments of a pathogen would have to be altered and how in order to craft an efficient biological weapon from known germs. It is equally impossible at present to assemble a completely new pathogen from parts of known germs that would then have precisely defined properties.

At most, such a biological weapon could possibly be created by accident. Since the probability of this is small, a great many experiments would have to be performed. This costs time and money. And requires high-security laboratories – otherwise the experiments would lead to the death of many researchers.

But even if an authoritarian government possessed a modified virus or bacterium that its scientists thought would make a good bioweapon, that agent would have to be tested on humans. This is the only way to know if the laboratory construct is actually the desired bioweapon. Even if a regime were indeed that ruthless, major human trials with many deaths in one country would probably not go completely undetected by the rest of the world.

Nevertheless, let’s take this thought experiment one step further. Assuming that such a new bioweapon actually existed, it would be very difficult to use it in such a way that it would harm only the inhabitants of an enemy country. This was impressively demonstrated by the Coronavirus pandemic: If a virus is very easily transmissible between people, it quickly spreads across national borders and to other continents. Moreover, it does not simply disappear on command.

Thus, if an authoritarian government were to release a new bioweapon in an enemy country, it would not be immune to the pathogen finding its way «back home» sooner or later. Its own population would be in danger.

It would not be possible for the attacker to completely protect the population in their own country with a specific vaccine. Many viruses and bacteria constantly adapt as they circulate in the population, which makes vaccines rapidly become less effective. This, too, has been illustrated by the recent Coronavirus pandemic.

A breeding ground for influence operations

A new bioweapon could, however, destabilize the enemy. But here the question arises: What extent of destabilization is useful for the attacker? And how quickly do they then want to achieve control of key infrastructure or businesses?

Undoubtedly, the Coronavirus pandemic has temporarily shaken up many countries, including Western industrialized nations. But now, more than three years after the outbreak, no country is still so badly affected that corporations, government agencies, or infrastructure would be easy prey. What has remained, however, are weakened state finances, resentment against the authorities and increased polarization between segments of the population.

A targeted attack using a virus or bacterium thus involves many incalculable dangers for the attacker. It is therefore much more interesting to surf the waves of an already existing pandemic.

Indeed, that is exactly how the mechanics of hybrid warfare work. It follows a plan of operations that frequently align with existing conflicts or problems: The discourses on migration, energy or even a pandemic lend themselves to furthering divisions within a society.

Phases and vectors

The operations target the most vulnerable parts of a community. The centers of gravity of the West are its social diversity and the interconnect