As with all good technologies, there comes a point when purchasing the alternative makes no sense. Consider cell phones in the last decade, color televisions in the 1970s, and even petrol cars in the early twentieth century. It is hard to predict the timeframe of these shifts, but when they occur, the entire world changes. The 2020s appear to be the decade of electric vehicles.

Today, plug-in automobiles account for less than one-tenth of 1% of the worldwide car market. They’re rare on most roads and yet cost considerably more than comparable gasoline vehicles. ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance stated last year that EVs will not have a meaningful influence for another 50 years – certainly not in his lifetime.

But here is what we do know:

Rising oil prices can hasten climate action by speeding up the transition to electric vehicles.

Tesla, Chevrolet, and Nissan intend to start offering long-range electric vehicles in the $30,000 price range within the next several years. Other automakers and innovative technology firms are investing billions of dollars in dozens of different models. By 2021, some of these will be less expensive and perform much better than gasoline versions. The target would be to replicate Tesla’s Model S’s success, which presently outsells its rivals in the large luxury class in the United States. The question then is, how much oil demand will these cars displace?