Serialized TV series – shows with ongoing story arcs across episodes – are often beloved for their rich narratives. However, a common perception is that many of these shows decline in quality over successive seasons, a phenomenon famously dubbed “jumping the shark.” Below, we analyze this trend using multiple data sources (IMDb and Metacritic ratings from critics and audiences, viewership figures, social media sentiment, etc.) and explore why these declines happen. We also highlight cases of shows that buck the trend or rebound after a slump.

Ratings Trends Across Seasons

Do shows really get worse each season? Broad data suggests yes, on average, quality peaks early then declines. One analysis of IMDb user ratings for every TV series found a typical tipping point around season 5 or 6, after which ratings fall continuously until cancellation (How Many Episodes Should You Watch Before Quitting a TV Show? A Statistical Analysis). In fact, “if a series runs long enough, there will probably be some quality degradation” (How Many Episodes Should You Watch Before Quitting a TV Show? A Statistical Analysis). Researchers humorously equated this to the “jump the shark” moment – referencing the infamous Happy Days episode that marked that show’s downturn (Jumping the Shark: When Great TV Shows Took a Turn for the Worse) (Jumping the Shark: When Great TV Shows Took a Turn for the Worse).

Multiple rating sources confirm the pattern: Early seasons often earn the highest scores from both critics and audiences, while later seasons see noticeable dips. A few examples illustrate this:

• Game of Thrones (HBO): Seasons 1–4 were critically acclaimed (Rotten Tomatoes scores ~90% or higher) and loved by viewers (e.g. Season 1 audience score 96%) (Game of Thrones Seasons Ranked by Rotten Tomatoes Scores). By contrast, the final Season 8 plummeted to 55% on the Tomatometer and a mere 30% audience score (Game of Thrones Seasons Ranked by Rotten Tomatoes Scores) – making it “the worst-rated season” of the series by far. IMDb ratings show a similar drop: the first 7 seasons averaged around 8.8–9.2, then Season 8 fell to about 6.4, reflecting massive disappointment.
• Dexter (Showtime): The serial-killer drama enjoyed wide praise in its first four seasons, but “reception dropped considerably as the series progressed, with the final season – and especially the finale – being highly criticized” (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia). Metacritic critic scores tell the story: Season 2 peaked at 85/100, then later seasons slid to the low 60s (Season 6) (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia). Rotten Tomatoes scores likewise dropped from 96% in Season 2 to an abysmal 38% by Season 6 (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia). The final Season 8 hit just 33% approval on RT (5.5/10 average rating) (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia), with critics calling it “bitterly disappointing” and accusing the finale of “opt(ing) to punish its audience instead” (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia). In short, Dexter went from must-see TV to a frequently cited example of how not to end a show.
• House of Cards (Netflix): An innovative hit in its early seasons, it saw quality “going downhill around its fourth and fifth seasons”, coincident with creator/showrunner Beau Willimon’s departure after Season 4 (
  House of Cards Misses its Last Chance to Save Itself – The Georgetown Voice ). By the shortened Season 6, critics were lukewarm (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) (House of Cards season 6 – Wikipedia), with reviews saying the show “folds under the weight” of a convoluted ending. This decline is notable given the first 3 seasons’ high acclaim.
• The Walking Dead (AMC): This long-running zombie saga had strong initial seasons, but viewer ratings (IMDb) “dropped ever so slightly over the first 6 seasons” before falling off a cliff in Season 7 (Jump the shark | broadbandchoices). The Season 6 finale (introduction of villain Negan) earned the lowest finale rating in series history (Jump the shark | broadbandchoices), and Seasons 7–8 saw further decline. Notably, the show’s average IMDb score plunged in Season 7 when the grim Negan storyline dominated, leading one analysis to conclude “Negan was the worst thing to happen to The Walking Dead*”* (Jump the shark | broadbandchoices) (Jump the shark | broadbandchoices). (Indeed, critics and fans alike panned Season 7 for its slow pace and brutality.)

It’s important to note that not every show follows a simple straight-line decline. Some hit a plateau or bounce around, and a few improve with time. For instance, Breaking Bad started strong and then got even better each season – its final season holds a near-perfect Metacritic 99/100, versus 73 for Season 1 (Breaking Bad Reviews – Metacritic). But such cases are the exception. More often, any mid-run spikes are temporary “dead cat bounces” rather than sustained turnarounds. For example, Dexter Season 7 earned better reviews than the low-point Season 6 (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia) (Dexter (TV series) – Wikipedia) – a momentary rebound – but then fell to its nadir in the last season. Similarly, The Walking Dead saw a modest revival in Season 9 (new showrunner Angela Kang) after the poorly received Seasons 7–8, with episode ratings “noticeably” rising again (Data Shows The Walking Dead Declined When Negan Arrived – ComicBook.com). And in some cases, fan-favorite series manage a final burst of quality: The Office (US) declined after Season 6–7, but by bringing back original writers for its last season, it “end[ed] the show on an all-time high” creatively (Jump the shark | broadbandchoices). These rebound cases show that course corrections are possible – e.g. Friday Night Lights overcame a disastrous Season 2 subplot to deliver strong later seasons (How Many Episodes Should You Watch Before Quitting a TV Show? A Statistical Analysis) – but they require significant creative adjustments (more on that later).

Overall, across metrics: IMDb user scores, critic scores on Metacritic/Rotten Tomatoes, and user scores on those platforms all tend to concur – many serialized shows peak early and slide downward. As one data scientist summed up: “Here lies an unavoidable truth of television: if a series runs long enough, it will likely decline in quality.” (How Many Episodes Should You Watch Before Quitting a TV Show? A Statistical Analysis)

Audience Retention & Viewership Trends

Declining quality usually goes hand-in-hand with declining viewership and audience retention. In many cases, each new season sees fewer people tuning in than the last – either because the novelty wore off or word of mouth turned negative. For example:

• Heroes (NBC): A textbook rise-and-fall story. Season 1 of this serialized superhero drama averaged over 14 million viewers in the U.S., a phenomenon-level hit (Why Was NBC’s Heroes Series Canceled? | SYFY WIRE) (Why Was NBC’s Heroes Series Canceled? | SYFY WIRE). But after a poorly received Season 2 (hampered by the 2007 writers’ strike) and muddled subsequent arcs, ratings plummeted. By the final episodes of Season 4 in 2010, only about 4 million viewers remained – a “precipitous viewership dive” to less than one-third of the original audience (Why Was NBC’s Heroes Series Canceled? | SYFY WIRE). NBC ultimately cancelled Heroes as the audience evaporated.
• The Walking Dead: In contrast to its falling quality scores, TWD initially kept growing in audience through season 5 – peaking at 15–17 million live viewers for its biggest episodes. However, as the show’s pacing and plots faltered in later seasons, viewers too began to flee. By the 11th and final season (2021–22), U.S. viewership for new episodes had dropped to roughly 2–3 million (The Walking Dead season finale viewer numbers in the U.S. 2022) (The Walking Dead: Season 11 Ratings – TV Series Finale) – a massive decline from its heyday. The series finale in 2022 drew just 3.1 million viewers (The Walking Dead season finale viewer numbers in the U.S. 2022), which, while not trivial, is a far cry from the numbers at its peak. In short, millions who started the journey didn’t stick around to see it end.
• House of Cards: As Netflix doesn’t release detailed numbers, we rely on Nielsen estimates for the U.S. House of Cards saw a noticeable drop in completion rate by its last season. The Season 6 premiere (2018, without Kevin Spacey) had ~2.9 million viewers in its first week, down from ~4.4 million for the Season 5 opener (How House Of Cards Kevin Spacey-Less Season Measured Up In Ratings). Across Season 6, episodes averaged 1.5 million vs 1.9 million for Season 5 (How House Of Cards Kevin Spacey-Less Season Measured Up In Ratings). That’s roughly a 20–25% decline in average audience for the final season – indicating many subscribers lost interest after the behind-the-scenes turmoil and creative decline.

These examples illustrate a typical pattern: when quality declines, so does audience retention. Viewers begin to “jump ship” if a show isn’t delivering the same excitement. In some cases, a controversial plot twist or drop in writing quality can trigger a sharp viewership fall (e.g. The Walking Dead’s graphic Season 7 premiere alienated a chunk of its audience (Data Shows The Walking Dead Declined When Negan Arrived – ComicBook.com) (Data Shows The Walking Dead Declined When Negan Arrived – ComicBook.com)). In other cases, it’s a gradual erosion of engagement – fewer new fans join, casual viewers drift away, and only the die-hards remain by the end.

There are exceptions where viewership doesn’t immediately reflect quality drops. For instance, Game of Thrones increased its live audience in the final seasons despite growing fan frustration – Season 8 was the most-watched ever for HBO, even as its reviews were the worst. This paradox (soaring popularity concurrent with falling ratings/sentiment) often happens with cultural phenomenon shows: momentum and hype carry the audience to the end, then after the finale the backlash fully sets in. In general though, consistent quality is key to retaining viewers over the long run. When quality wanes, it becomes harder to attract new viewers or keep existing ones invested. (Streaming services appear to recognize this: industry observers note that Netflix rarely lets shows go beyond 3–4 seasons now, in part because later seasons tend to have diminishing returns in attracting subscribers (Netflix cancelling shows after one season trains people to not watch …).)

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

In today’s world, social media provides a real-time barometer of audience sentiment. For serialized shows, Twitter, Reddit, and other platforms often amplify the discussion – and the discontent if fans feel a beloved series is losing its way.

A dramatic example was the Game of Thrones finale in 2019. The final season sparked such an uproar that a Change.org petition to remake Season 8 “with competent writers” gained over 1 million signatures (Game of Thrones petition: more than 1 million fans demand season …). Fans on social media complained en masse about “rushed plots and inconsistent characters” (Game of Thrones petition: more than 1 million fans demand season …). There were over 6 million GoT mentions on social media during finale week (Game of Thrones: Social Media Reactions to the Series Finale), much of it heated debate and disappointment. This kind of backlash shows how strongly audiences react when a long-running narrative fails to meet expectations. Sent