If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb contrasts fragile systems—those that suffer serious harm under volatility—with robust systems that can endure stress with minimal damage. He extends this concept with antifragile systems, which can actually benefit from disorder, but we’ll focus here on the divide between fragile and robust.
Taleb also introduces the Lindy Effect as an idea about longevity: if something non-perishable has been around for a long time, that track record suggests it’s likely to keep going. We’ll see how this relates to two laptops—one from 2008, the other from 2021.
Old Thinkpads: Modular, Robust Survivors
IBM and early Lenovo Thinkpads showcases a design built for longevity. Despite their age, these business-class laptop are still serviceable and useful for web browsing, ‘office work’, and light coding. These machine are too slow to handle tasks like video editing or gaming, but they remain consistent in handling everyday tasks without failing under normal wear and tear.
One of the main reasons that old Thinkpads stand out is their design philosophy. They are made with swappable components with the intention of user upgradeability. The battery, RAM, storage drive, keyboard, and even the CPU can be easily replaced. I can open the bottom of my T400 with a regular screwdriver and clean the fa
48 Comments
p_ing
A 17 year old ThinkPad is going to have extremely limited utility for today's applications. You can browse the web****, sure. You can replace parts, yes. But it still performs like dogshit for today's applications.
That said, I maintain a G4 Cube running an outdated OS to play Sim City and Sim Tower. And it's "upgraded" as much as possible.
****JavaScript not included
acosmism
I still use my t440s all the time to this day. it is durable, versatile, does exactly what it does and does it well. not tied down to its firmware, software – i can't think of the analogy off the bat but its like several other things that "just work" (maybe indoor plumbing or something) so well you forget about them
51Cards
My W530 is 13-ish years old and it's still my daily driver. It doesn't travel anymore (now wired into my desk) but still works great running Win 10. I code on this thing all day and so far have only had to replace a fan and give it an SSD upgrade.
CursedSilicon
I wish that Framework could attain the same lofty levels of "second hand market success" that ThinkPads enjoy. A lot of the "Thinkpad fans" I've talked to genuinely want them, or respect them for similar reasons they enjoy the ThinkPad legacy.
ThinkPads are durable but every day they get older, slower and more difficult to source parts for as collectors entrench themselves and the requirements of operating systems (and the "modern web") worsen
Framework laptops are wonderful, modern and (arguably?) cheaper to own in the long-term thanks to being able to replace components, particularly the entire mainboard as time progresses.
*But* they're a tiny boutique manufacturer. Their barrier to entry is that of a pretty hefty modern laptop, versus buying a T420 for practically pennies and performing all kinds of aftermarket "mods" to it. 51nb's "FrankenPads" especially breathe incredible new life into old IBM and Lenovo stock.
Combine this with the fact that being the "defacto business laptop" for nearly three decades (along with perhaps Dell) means there's enough Thinkpads on Earth to probably stretch end-to-end around the moon and back
cheeseomlit
I still use my t420 all the time for one reason and that's the keyboard. I can't stand chiclet keys and that's all there is now
dpedu
> A [macbook] battery replacement involves carefully prying out a glued component.
Can't speak to every model, but it's not always like this. I just swapped the battery on my 2020 M1 Macbook Air, and it's much easier now. The battery is glued to a metal tray that unscrews and lifts out of the laptop. It is discarded with the old battery. The tray is also held down with pull-tab adhesive strips, but they are trivial to remove – similar to what "command hooks" have.
https://www.ifixit.com/Guide/MacBook+Air+13-Inch+Late+2020+B…
I've also done a battery swap on a 2015 Macbook Pro 15" – much harder. Each individual battery cell is glued directly to the chassis, and removing each one involves a lot of prying and praying it doesn't puncture or decide to detonate.
Back to the macbook air, I've also replaced the screen and USB-C ports. It's not that bad.
pram
I appreciate the author going over the "strategic value" of both, but it seems like a desktop would fulfill the same purpose (modularity, repairability, linux) as the ThinkPad? Or, considering he obviously requires a more powerful machine than the T400 for LLMs and video editing: the MacBook? What is the point of two laptops in this case?
comment_ran
Pretty much the same trajectory. I started at my T420 around 2010 and that time I just main laptop, computer. Then, as I have a more powerful desktop, this T420 becomes my secondary computer and I started to experience Linux with it. After almost 15 years I end up converted it into a PVE host and run just one or two virtual machines on it and it's quite durable I can still do functional work on it, quite remarkable how a computer can last so long.
TacticalCoder
[dead]
ajxs
My x220 has traveled around the world multiple times. It's been through dozens of airport scanners, dropped multiple times, and shared a few cups of coffee with me by accident. It just keeps on kicking. My x220 running Debian is actually quicker and more responsive than my friend's modern Lenovo running Windows. I'd be tempted to upgrade to a lighter and thinner laptop, but I'm too attached to the keyboard.
senectus1
ha! I have one of those at home. I think it still works too.
shmerl
Side note, but I noticed now practically all Thinkpads are available with Linux as an option. That's a big improvement from when Windows tax was practically unavoidable with them.
markus_zhang
I still use my T470S as a Ubuntu 22.04 development machine. I bought it from my pre-pre-company as a used one back in 2022 and it is a fantastic laptop for personal projects. The only update I did was a 16GB RAM to up the memory to 20GB. I also bought a new battery as one of the two was dead.
I wish the graphic driver could be better as playing Youtube videos constantly crashes Firefox on Ubuntu. Other than that I have nothing to complain. I have been using it for 3+ years with zero maintenance (I didn't even bother to clean the fan) and it never failed me.
I have a second "new" Dell workstation laptop standing by just in case it breaks down. But it is a Windows machine with 32GB of memory, so I'll probably use WSL2 instead.
vvpan
Off-topic about the Nassim Nicholas Taleb opening: Does anybody else feel like he just restates obvious things in a more formalized and somewhat pompous way? I do not mind formalization but I feel like I am supposed to swoon over it as if some profound truth, that was not already implied in our every day thinking, was being revealed.
ggm
I have an x31 from 2003/4 I'd love to rescue but the bios won't boot.
frfl
Where does one find a replacement battery for a thinkpad that doesn't die after 6 months?
I spent $100 on what I thought was a legit and reputable local middleman for laptop batteries (of course they just buy from China), but even then first battery was half dead on arrival, and second free replacement was dead in around just under a year with rapid capacity decline after 6 months.
ChuckMcM
Heh, I've got a T440 [T420i, see edit] I'm running FreeBSD on. Definitely tank status. It is even one of the 'rare' HD ones.
EDIT: I just turned it over to check and its a T420i Type 4177-X07 pretty much solid as a rock. I also discovered it would run with 16GB of RAM so there's that.
zabzonk
ThinkPads back when were certainly good, sturdy machines, though I could never get along with the nipple. Another great older machine for me was the purple Sony Vaio – magnesium alloy, came with Win2K installed. I bought one, and then immediately bought another – the first I repurposed as a Linux server and I carried them both (easily) around for demoing this and that.
My latest, which I think is going to be in the ThinkPad and Vaio class is my new Asus Zenbook – brilliant light chassis and great performance.
ptek
I have a T43, slowly working on a VESA driver for NeXTSTEP 3.3 (Yes there is a driver for OpenStep 4.2).
Using Ghidra and the source that Apple released. Final set up will be, NeXTSTEP3.3, DOS6.22 (AutoCAD R12, Matlab), WinXP (For Encarta 95 and Mindmaze) and NetBSD.
cft
About 14 months after purchase, screen bezel of my MacBook cracked. Apparently there was a tiny food crumb jammed between the screen bezel and the keyboard bezel. It was then that I found out that the screen bezel is made of glass. And that Apple recommends to wipe the keyboard before closing the lid.
interroboink
Having run some hardware for about 20 years (recently deceased), the problem that eventually happens is that newer OSes drop support for old hardware. If you hit some weird bug on your setup on a new OS release, there won't be anyone to help you fix it[1]. So then you're stuck on an old OS. In time, that means you can't run the latest userland software either, which relies on more modern OS features (eg: your Firefox will get increasingly out-of-date). That means the set of things you can do will eventually narrow and narrow.
If you're only running programs that you have full control of, and can compile/fix locally, or where receiving security fixes &etc. don't matter, then you're good. But things are a bit more interconnected, these days.
I do still enjoy running my hardware into the ground rather than tossing out perfectly good components every few years though (:
[1] In my case, the boot loader stopped working for my hardware on FreeBSD 11.4
throwaway0665
I got an x220 jumping onto the hype but it was too small and too slow to use. Even though I'd maxed out the RAM, replaced the solder paste and was running a lightweight i3 environment.
I've only ever personally owned second hand Thinkpads and they're so great. But you should get the newest, reasonably priced one you can. There are so many affordable T480s/T470s out there or even the newer T14 models. They're still very serviceable and many still allow expansion with unsoldered RAM.
VirusNewbie
Back in the day, I heard all sorts of great things about how durable Thinkpads were, I bought one with my hard earned money in ~2004 when doing contact web development work. It was my least reliable laptop I've ever had.
My Vaio notebooks always lasted quite a bit longer. Eventually got a macbook and haven't gone back, but yeah, the one Thinkpad I owned was the least reliable computing device I've bought in the ~40 years of my lifetime.
koinedad
Something about the font on this blog is not friendly to my eyes.
tyushk
I run NixOS on a coreboot-ed T420 and I absolutely love everything on the outside, but it really shows its age when compared to the display on my Macbook or it comes to running heavier software ie. rust-analyzer, Chrome, or Nix builds.
If Lenovo were to release a modern T420-like, with identical chassis, battery system and similar IO port variety, but a modern display, modern internals (replaceable SSD! soldered RAM at least has a case for performance) and a modern camera, cash would evaporate out of my wallet.
I remember there was a person [1] modding T60/T61s into "T700"s with 11th gen Intel chips. Unfortunately it looks like the project's been quiet since 2022. Hopefully there'll be more who try.
[1] https://www.xyte.ch/t700-crowdfunding/
ivraatiems
I love these old ThinkPads. I refurbish and sell them all the time. Just moments before writing this, I finished fixing up a T580; earlier today I did a heatsink replacement on a W510 which is going strong with an SSD and 20GB RAM.
The older they are, the better they are, but even the modern ones are still pretty good. Like the OP mentions, the market for parts is strong and it's easy to get what you need. Then when you go to sell them, they sell for a good amount. That W510 is worth at least $100 in its current condition.
Vaslo
I have one of these that was a tablet and touchscreen from my mba program in 2008. I still have it and put some version of Linux command line only (peppermint maybe) and it still works. Haven’t touched it in a few years.
Honestly was never that impressed by it and have had to replace the fans on it multiple times but it’s still kicking while other laptops are not.
coro_1
From what I know the entire purpose of the Macbook "Pro" line is literally that they're made to be modular. They were at least. I maintain a 2011 Pro. The build quality is noticeably nicer than the cheaper chassis they produce today. The experience itself is actually much nicer too, smoother, feels better. Added, modern displays have great resolution. But the aged units carry an interesting and rich in depth projection ability you don't find today.
BrenBarn
I'm really bummed to see how newer ThinkPads have given up that modularity. Some components are necessarily more integrated, and I was never going to be too sad if it was easier to buy a new laptop than to replace the CPU. But the fact that you could, for instance, trivially replace the hard drive made it ludicrously easy to get a lot of extra mileage out of old ThinkPads.
rkagerer
I still drive a Dell Precision M6600 from 2011, and liken the build quality, robustness and modularity of that era of the product line to the Thinkpads being discussed here.
I'm overdue to upgrade, but know I won't love its replacement anywhere near as much.
ipv6ipv4
I have a PowerBook titanium G4 from 2003 that I can boot but never bother because it's not worth the power consumption.
namirez
I still have my T61 thinkpad from 2007. Other than the dead battery, it works great.
ruleryak
I booted up my Thinkpad 760 XL from 1997 recently and let it run for a couple days. My WinZip was more than 9000 days past expiration, and it counted up one by one, the number just spinning ever upward for the better part of half an hour. 2 of the 3 batteries I had for it still charged to above 90% and drained at the normal rate, so I could still run it unplugged for around 6 hours. The batteries were modular, so you could have a cdrom, floppy, or battery in the first bay and a battery in the second bay. I normally ran it with 2 batteries and an external pcmcia cdrom that ran on double-a's. For a 28 year old laptop, it was still incredibly usable.
zie
Reading this from my t420s, it's only 11yrs old.
ed_mercer
There’s nothing out there that matches the bold business look and feel of old thinkpads, my personal favorite being the x61. These machines are so well-built and beautiful, and I respect and understand the decision to try and keep them running.
But I would respect a restomod more =)
quailfarmer
The tightness of hardware integration isn't a bug, it's genuinely a feature; In fact, it's the defining feature that makes Apple hardware great. Socketed RAM, CPU, and Storage just weren't worth the tradeoffs, namely size, weight, cost, and performance. Including those modular interfaces just wasn't worth it when the internal interfaces would be obsolete within 5 years, and the average user was replacing sub-components 0 times over the life of the device.
The user being able to swap parts easily is _neat_ but it's just not an required feature, any more than the user of a car being able to easily hot-swap the engine. The right level of integration provides a tradeoff the maximizes reliability, cost, performance, and repair. A professional can still replace almost any component of a modern laptop, with a few thousand $ of specialized tools, and the battery, the only component with a fixed lifetime, can be easily replaced at home.
I really hope Framework can continue to develop hardware with documented repairability, without falling for the myth that tight integration and quality are mutually exclusive.
yu3zhou4
Respect! I still run x230 with Linux for fun and so my kids can smash the keys on the keyboard (btw imho the keyboard feeling is better than in any laptop I used since then) and they feel good about themselves that they do the same thing as dad
trod1234
I'm surprised they didn't mention how many of the Thinkpad models encase heatsink fan power cord in kapton tape and run that cord along and above the CPU/GPU shared heatsink. The modular assembly fails reliably and consistently roughly every 3 years.
Sure I can get parts, but I don't think it actually shows what they are trying to say.
kombine
I am daily driving ThinkPad T14s Gen3 AMD that I bought off Ebay a year ago. It was opened but new with warranty until 2026 and I only paid for 600 British pounds for it. It is not as repairable as their other models but it has a premium quality build, a modern CPU and full Linux compatibility. It is also the first generation of T14 when they returned 16:10 screens, this aspect ratio is a must for coding. ThinkPads are seriously underrated.
28304283409234
Wish there was a company that would build upgrades to old ThinkPads. A new main oard that would fit snugly in my x230 for example.
zh3
T42, T60, T62, T420, T520 (multiples of some around the house) here, ending at the point they changed the keyboard. All running linux, the T420 and T520 (with SSD's) are fine with modern browsers while the older ones can be slow on bloated sites. I imagine the RAM might be an issue with multiple electron apps though.
Only real maintenance is to use quality battery replacements (T420 lasts particularly well on batteries).
justmarc
These are very well built machines.
To keep them running for decades Linux or other open source operating systems are pretty much the only choice. Not only for performance (which is better) but also because Windows will phase old hardware support out, it's just what they've always done, and will always continue doing.
inatreecrown2
I bought a x220 about 10 years ago, and then a x230 a couple years ago. I also have a M1 Pro 16 inch but sometimes I enjoy working with the Thinkpads more than that. I really wish we could get a modern system that was build like the old Thinkpads. Especially regarding overall Size, repairability, connectivity and Keyboard.
HexPhantom
This is a fantastic breakdown, and it nails something I think a lot of people feel but don’t always articulate: modern hardware is often objectively better, but not necessarily more resilient
chilldsgn
I would love to get a ThinkPad as my next computer. My 2018 MacBook Pro is still working amazingly well, but I think I won't get a new one.
globular-toast
This is why I've always preferred full size PCs. But if I were to get a laptop it sounds like it would be a 17 year old ThinkPad. Are the newer ones the same? This wasn't clear in the article.
My PC is ten years old now. It's always run GNU/Linux and feels noticeably snappier than more recent machines with their bloated software. I've maxed out the CPU and RAM on it, overclocked it, added a nice AMD workstation GPU so I could run two 4k screens. I guess the thing is it really feels like I own it. I don't feel the same about phones and tablets.
jxjnskkzxxhx
You can run an LLM on a Mac laptop?
pengaru
Writing this on my 16GB RAM i7 X230… but I really miss my X61s w/SXGA+ LED mod, perfect keyboard for my sized hands.