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SINGAPORE
The list of things for which Japan enjoys a global reputation includes delicious food, cutting-edge technology, an oversupply of karaoke bars and an undersupply of babies. In 1990 it published a record-low fertility rate for the previous year—the so-called “1.57 shock”. For years it has been seen as a harbinger of how rich societies will age and shrink.
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Much of Asia has now caught up with or overtaken it. Japan’s fertility rate of 1.3 in 2020, the latest year for which comparable figures are available, puts it on a par with mainland China, according to the Population Research Bureau, an American outfit. China’s birth rate is likely already to have fallen behind Japan’s: there were 10.6m Chinese births last year, down from 12m in 2020, a decline of 11%. The number of births fell only 3% in Japan.
Japanese fertility is still ultra-low compared with almost any society in human history. Yet it is now higher than that of any well-off East Asian or South-East Asian economy. The numbers in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan ranged between 0.8 and 1.1 in 2020 (see chart). Nor is this a temporary blip caused by the pandemic: Japan’s figure was higher than all those countries in 2019, too.
Rich, baby-averse Asian countries in the region have three things in common. First, their people rarely have children outside marriage. Only around 2% of births in Japan and South Korea are to unmarried mothers, the lowest levels in the oecd, a club of rich countries. In wealthy Western countries that figure is typically between 30% and 60%. In China, the few who become pregnant out of wedlock are often denied benefits. The region’s decline in births has closely tracked a decline in marriages
