Skip to content Skip to footer
A few words about FiveThirtyEight by JumpCrisscross

A few words about FiveThirtyEight by JumpCrisscross

12 Comments

  • Post Author
    MrMcCall
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 1:32 am

    [flagged]

  • Post Author
    henning
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 1:36 am

    [flagged]

  • Post Author
    moffers
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:09 am

    I really enjoyed 538 in its heyday, and am glad to see Nate carry on with some of the work. I know he can be a polarizing in some circles, but keeping the data angle visible helps smooth some of the rougher edges of following politics sometimes.

  • Post Author
    qqtt
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:24 am

    As someone who was super interested in the 538-style of election coverage in 2008, I've kind of fallen "out of love" so to speak with election models and forecasting in general. I'm not really convinced about what it adds to the conversation around elections. We can all look at various polls and get an assessment of who is generally ahead. Weighted polling aggregators and forecasting models just collect all these polls and spit out some data. It's easy to hand wave and think some new information is being revealed, but ultimately it is just a "garbage in garbage out" situation – you are entering polls as input, some hand waving is going on, and you get some forecast as a result.

    I think part of my cynicism comes in the wake of the 2016 election, in which the forecast rightfully counted some scenarios in which either candidate could win, upon which conclusion of the model was basically "the result fits in with the forecast, because either candidate could have won according to the model" – in which case I personally concluded, if no matter what the result, we can always just say "the candidate who won could always have won given the forecast" – what are we really adding to the conversation here? We can simply look at polls and understand who is generally ahead, and not be any better or worse off.

  • Post Author
    chasing
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:25 am

    I already miss the approval charts over time. Where the best place to see those, now?

  • Post Author
    WiSaGaN
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:38 am

    Glad to hear they will revive the NBA part. Was using the model extensively. It was very informative.

  • Post Author
    laweijfmvo
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:50 am

    it must be a wild experience to have a megacorp buy out your brain child, burn it to ashes and throw it away, and chase after the next shiny thing to slap ads on…

  • Post Author
    red_hare
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 2:56 am

    I started listening to the 538 Politics podcast a lifetime ago when they did The Gerrymandering Project. The deep intertwining of history, intentions, and statistics made the narrative compelling. I learned so much about how our democracy worked that I would never have known otherwise.

    So, I kept listening and kept learning. It was sometimes difficult, not because of their storytelling skills, but because the news was hard to consume. But the cold numbers helped me manage my emotions with clarity and not disengage.

    There's something wonderful about journalism backed by data. The line between news and editorial has long been blurred beyond visibility. 538 was a rare example of a place where smart people could express strong opinions but always had to show the work behind their conclusions.

    I'll miss 538. They were an amazing team.

  • Post Author
    tekla
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 3:15 am

    This is an absolute loss. 538 is amazing because it forced people to confront the cold hard data about polls surrounding politics and if you didn't like it, figure out what they did wrong or deal with it.

    I'll never forget being called racist because I showed someone a 538 poll that said the presidential election was at best a toss-up to someone who was sure Kamala Harris would sweep the swing states.

  • Post Author
    nomilk
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 3:59 am

    > Last night, as President Trump delivered his State of the Union address, the Wall Street Journal reported that ABC News would lay off the remaining staff at 538 as part of broader cuts within corporate parent Disney.

    Did Trump's policies cause the layoffs, or does Nate just happen to mention Trump's address? (forgive my ignorance – feels odd to mention the address if it had nothing to do with the layoffs, but I'm not aware of any obvious connection)

  • Post Author
    doctorpangloss
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 4:39 am

    Nate, no. FiveThirtyEight is being shut down because its election model is wrong.

  • Post Author
    BrenBarn
    Posted March 6, 2025 at 7:07 am

    FiveThirtyEight was interesting in its time, but in the past few years I felt it ironically became exactly what it was initially trying to oppose: a site full of opinion-based punditry. All their "538 chats" were basically the same as talking heads on TV. Okay, the 538 talking heads maybe paid more attention to data, but the good part of 538 was the intent to cut to the chase, dispense with all the puffery that ordinary news sources shove at you, and just let the data speak for itself. In recent years they moved away from that and became less distinguishable from the opinion section of a mainstream news source.

Leave a comment

In the Shadows of Innovation”

© 2025 HackTech.info. All Rights Reserved.

Sign Up to Our Newsletter

Be the first to know the latest updates

Whoops, you're not connected to Mailchimp. You need to enter a valid Mailchimp API key.